Daniel Gafford is the best rim protector in the entire NBA, yet the Dallas Mavericks still look shaky on defense. Opponents fall 22.1 percentage points short of their expected basket field goal rate when he defends them. That stat is huge, but per The Smoking Cuban, the team’s overall defense is just so-so at best. Gafford is doing his job, but the system around him has a fatal flaw that needs fixing now.
The problem is that Dallas is betting its season on opponents missing open shots. Despite Gafford’s elite metrics, the Mavericks have shown only so-so defensive performance. Beyond the arc, opponents shoot 29.7 percent, a mark ranking 29th in the league. That number looks great right now, but it is not a sustainable plan for a championship run. If the league starts hitting those open looks, Dallas will crumble fast.
The Danger of Open Threes
Look at the deeper numbers and the worry gets real. Per The Smoking Cuban, opponents are shooting 26.6 percent on open 3-pointers, which is 30th in the NBA. This number sits almost eight percentage points under the league median. Put differently, teams would net roughly one extra 3-pointer per game hitting at an average clip. One extra shot per game changes the outcome of close contests, and Dallas cannot rely on bad luck forever.
Worse yet, the Mavs are not forcing enough turnovers to create easy points. Mavericks opponents are coughing it up 15.0 times per game, ranking 23rd in the NBA. While Dallas ranks 14th in points off turnovers, the lack of pressure means the defense is just sitting back. They are not disrupting the flow, and they are letting teams get comfortable against a system that depends on Gafford being on the floor every single minute.
What Happens When Gafford Sits?
With Gafford playing, Dallas performs 21.7 points per 100 possessions better. That gap is insane, but it raises a terrifying question about their rotation. The team has no other bigs who can match his impact. Morez Johnson Jr. and P.J. Washington have not come close to matching that pro-level protection. Johnson is already picking up 3.2 fouls per game in just 15.5 minutes, which limits his time on the floor. If Gafford rests, the rim protection vanishes.
This reliance creates a clear ceiling for the team. They need to force more turnovers and stop giving up wide-open looks. The defense has been splashy because of Gafford, Zaccharie Risacher, and Cooper Flagg, but the point of attack is still slipping. A defensive rating of 111.3 places Dallas 16th in the league, right in the middle of the pack.
